The housing bubble is not, more’s the pity, a sub-aqua holiday home for scuba divers but the dreaded term for a potentially explosive rise in house prices.
While no-one wants to see a return to the bad old days of price wars and homes placed out of reach of first time buyers, what is certain is that we need to build more houses.
Cue trumpet fanfare!
New figures released this month by the Scottish Government show a total of 12,188 private-led new build homes were completed in the year to end December 2014 – that’s an increase of 16 per cent on the previous year.
In fact, a total of 15,541 homes were completed in the full year to end December 2014, 4 per cent (or 657 homes) more than the 14,884 completions in the previous year.
Aside from battling market conditions, building new homes is a complex business, so these figures are all the more remarkable.
To get from the groundworks to the point where the roof goes on involves a bewildering array of trades and materials.
So, if you are an electrician, plumber, tiler or bricklayer, then you will know already the future is looking much rosier than it has done in years, as the building industry swings into action again.
This return to business as usual is reflected in the jobs market where there are currently vacancies for joiners, gas engineers, construction lecturers and quantity surveyors.
According to Andrew McFarlane, consultant with DM Hall Chartered Surveyors, and Chairman of the prestigious Herald Property Awards for Scotland, there has been a rapid growth in activity in the past 12 months.
He says: “Sites that were mothballed during the downturn are now being developed and in those areas where both the product and the price are right there has been a return to selling off-plan.”
Even the recent general election, which in the past was guaranteed to slow house sales, had no discernible effect on business.
“There was a slight slowdown in the run-up to the Referendum, but there was no sign of May’s general election having any sort of impact – probably because there is little in any of the parties’ manifestos that will directly affect house sales.”
The effect of a Mansion Tax in Scotland would be negligible, says Andrew, so it is not seen as a threat – he is even dubious that recent changes to Stamp Duty, which have lightened the burden of property tax for some buyers, has had much of an impact in the positive sense.
The real reason behind increasing sales, he believes, is pent-up demand and confidence that the financial landscape is not going to alter greatly in the foreseeable future.
“The fact is that interest rates have been so low for so long that buyers feel that it is unlikely that they will return to the heights of 8% or 10% that they have reached in the past, and that any small increases will be slow and manageable.”
What that means is that house buyers have returned to the market and developers are pulling out all the stops to complete properties that have been sold off-plan and to build new homes from scratch.
Earlier this year Stephen Good, Chief Executive of Construction Scotland Innovation Centre, predicted this upturn when he said: “There is a confidence and buoyancy within the industry, which I am sure, will be reflected in the statistics in the coming months.”
That’s not just welcome news in the weeks and months ahead for house buyers: it’s music to the ears of everyone who works in the construction trade, from those on the frontline, such as foremen and labourers, to those behind the scenes, including health and safety advisors and project planners.
It means, too, the phrase “safe as houses” is sounding once again like a well-built reason for seeking a job in construction.